Yen น่าสน close to turn policy soon
Yen positivity
The Japanese yen has had a torrid 2023, dropping 8% against the dollar and languishing as the worst-performing major currency.
But market participants polled by Bloomberg say that three straight years of outsized declines look set to end in 2024 as the Bank of Japan exits the world’s last negative interest rate regime and its peers cut borrowing costs. The median estimate of forecasts is for a rally to 135 against the dollar next year, from about 142 today.
The Japanese yen has had a torrid 2023, dropping 8% against the dollar and languishing as the worst-performing major currency.
But market participants polled by Bloomberg say that three straight years of outsized declines look set to end in 2024 as the Bank of Japan exits the world’s last negative interest rate regime and its peers cut borrowing costs. The median estimate of forecasts is for a rally to 135 against the dollar next year, from about 142 today.
Some investors saw recent comments by Bank of Japan officials, broaching the topic of exit scenarios, as a signal of an imminent move away from yield curve control. This is likely a mistake. We see the messaging as part of a long process of laying the groundwork for a smooth transition next year, most likely in July.”